Come ha sottolineato Russ Dallen (Caracas Capital Markets, nell’immagine a seguire) in una nota agli investitori, quanto sta avvenendo è anche la prova che d’ora in poi la Cina non sarà più pronta a salvare il Venezuela, cosa che ha sempre fatto nel corso degli anni passati.
“Nobody knows what the hell is going on,” says Russ Dallen of Caracas Capital, a boutique investment bank that closely follows Venezuelan bonds.
Prices of Venezuelan bonds have rebounded from their lows on November 3, the day after President Nicolás Maduro announced the restructuring.
But not all bonds have rebounded together. The first chart shows two pairs of bonds, with similar maturities and coupons, issued by the sovereign and by PDVSA.
Previously, the pairs traded at similar prices. Yet, while the sovereign and PDVSA bonds at first fell in lockstep, they have since moved apart. The PDVSA bonds are now priced about 6 cents on the dollar above their sovereign counterparts.
“People think they are more likely to default on the sovereign,” says Mr Dallen. That makes sense, he says, because sovereign immunity laws make asset seizures unlikely in the event of default.“The idea is that they would protect PDVSA because it’s the money generator,” he adds, “and they can keep paying because it doesn’t have large maturities over the next two years.”