Bloomberg: Credit Suisse Bans Trades in Some Venezuela Debt Amid Crisis

The move by the bank “shows that it is rapidly withdrawing its support and association from the Maduro regime,” said Russ Dallen, a managing partner at Caracas Capital.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-10/credit-suisse-bans-trading-in-venezuela-s-controversial-bonds

Banco suizo prohibe a sus operadores negociar bonos de Venezuela

El movimiento del banco “muestra que está retirando rápidamente su apoyo y asociación del régimen de Maduro”, dijo Russ Dallen, socio gerente de Caracas Capital.

https://www.cronista.com/finanzasmercados/Banco-suizo-prohibe-a-sus-operadores-negociar-bonos-de-Venezuela-20170811-0050.html

Credit Suisse proíbe negociação de títulos da Venezuela

A decisão demonstra que o banco “está retirando rapidamente seu apoio e associação com o regime de Maduro”, disse Russ Dallen, sócio-gerente da Caracas Capital.

https://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/bloomberg/2017/08/11/credit-suisse-proibe-negociacao-de-titulos-da-venezuela.htm

Venezuela: Regional Implications and the Canadian Response

Teleconference – Venezuela: Regional Implications and the Canadian Response – August 9, 1-2pm EST

Deutsche Welle: EE. UU. sopesa sanciones contra Venezuela

DW habló con Russ Dallen, ejecutivo del “Caracas Capital Markets” y una de las voces más escuchadas por la Casa Blanca y el Congreso de EE. UU. ¿Es viable imponer sanciones al petróleo venezolano?

http://www.dw.com/es/ee-uu-sopesa-sanciones-contra-venezuela/av-39799556

Barron’s: Venezuela Oil – Is Russia Riding To PDVSA’s Rescue?

Russ Dallen, a lawyer, publisher and investor in Venezuela bonds via Caracas Capital, weighs in on the news. He notes that Rosneft is one of the largest oil producers in the world and has little need to receive oil from Venezuela.

…Although the contract that Russia has with Venezuela is described as a “crude oil purchase contract,” it was always meant to be paid off by swapping equity into PDVSA joint oil ventures. In fact, Rosneft admitted the “transfer of equity shares” in its first quarter 2016 financials but has since been buried.

But Dallen goes into more detail, noting that last year Venezuela’s opposition party said President Nicolas Maduro doesn’t have the authority to sign off on financial agreements, and warned investors that any agreements Maduro signed will be void without the approval of the National Assembly.

That became the problem for Russia; Hence Russia’s further billion dollar loan, the Constituent Assembly and Russia’s quick support of it is an attempt to move past that problem. The Venezuelan Supreme Court had sought to achieve the same thing in its late March ruling dissolving the National Assembly. While nationwide outcry forced the Supreme Court to “clarify” the part of the judgment ridding the government of the pesky National Assembly, importantly, the resulting Opinion that still stands kept in the part of the decision that allows the Supreme Court to take over the right to approve any new oil, gold or mineral investments since the National Assembly is in “contempt.”

The regime’s National Constituent Assembly is designed to further replace the need of approval from the obstinate National Assembly and pave the path for investment more solid legal ground. Field evidence and the new Rosneft loan of $1 billion in April show that the Russians are anxious to pick up sophisticated and profitable bargains on the cheap (ExxonMobil was awarded $1.6 billion by ICSID for the expropriated share of Cerro Negro/Petromonagas that Rosneft was picking up for just $500 million).

Assuming that Venezuela can obtain legal surety for new investments, Rosneft has been looking to swap that debt (that Venezuela does not have the oil production to cover and cannot pay) to also pick up the shares expropriated from ConocoPhillips in their three ventures. ConocoPhillips says that it invested $4.5 billion in the advanced technology that it put into its 3 joint ventures before they were expropriated. Rosneft has visited all three and is especially interested in swapping that debt for equity in PetroSucre (pre-expropriating title CoroCoro), PetroAnzoategui (pre-expropriation title Petrozuata), and PetroPiar (pre-expropriation title Ameriven & La Hamaca).

http://www.barrons.com/articles/venezuela-oil-is-russia-riding-to-pdvsas-rescue-1501858066

American Thinker: Cold reality: Venezuela now a Russian puppet state

Investment banker Russ Dallen at Caracas Capital Markets points out a painfully obvious truth about Venezuela: it’s no longer a sovereign state. It’s actually a Russian puppet state.

In a market note via email, he writes:

“While the usual Venezuela cast of rogue acolytes – Cuba, Bolivia, Nicaragua – came out in support of the Maduro Regime after the fraudulent Constituent Assembly vote, from a geopolitical and economic point-of-view, there were only going to be two nations whose support really mattered: Russia and China. And even after the revelation by Venezuela’s voting machine software and hardware provider Smartmatic that Venezuela had misstated turnout by at least one million, both Russia and China came out in support of the Maduro regime.

While China has already invested and loaned $60 billion to Venezuela but has not been sending any new funds, early this morning, we got Russia’s state controlled oil company financials for the second quarter (2Q2017), and they help us solve one of the puzzles we had been pondering in where Venezuela and PDVSA sourced funds to pay $3.7 billion in April and May.

As you know, Goldman Sachs and Nomura provided Venezuela with around $900 million by buying $2.9 billion of PDVSA 6% of 2022 bonds from Venezuela in May. After advancing $2 billion to Venezuela in 2016, Rosneft’s second quarter 2017 financials reveal that Rosneft advanced another $1.015 billion under the “PDVSA crude oil purchase contract” in April.”

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2017/08/cold_reality_venezuela_now_a_russian_puppet_state.html

Les sanctions de Washington contre le Venezuela et l’impasse du chavisme

L’article cite le banquier d’investissement Russ Dallen qui a dit sur le ton de l’ironie que « les gens peuvent bien être surpris d’apprendre que les États-Unis financent l’administration Maduro ».

http://www.leblancetlenoir.com/2017/08/les-sanctions-de-washington-contre-le-venezuela-et-l-impasse-du-chavisme.html

Marketplace: Russ Dallen & Ricardo Hausmann on Venezuela

Chaos continued in Venezuela today with confirmation that voting machines had been tampered with before last weekend’s election. The U.S. is threatening more sanctions, but they could lead to unintended consequences. Russ Dallen and Ricardo Hausmann join Scott Tong to Discuss Venezuela.

http://www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace/08022017

Wall Street Journal: Venezuelan Default Fears Rise With Billions in Debt Coming Due Soon

The government and state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela SA together owe $5 billion in principal and interest payments due between now and the end of the year, according to Caracas Capital Markets. The country has $725 million due this month alone, the Venezuelan investment bank said.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelan-default-fears-rise-with-billions-in-debt-coming-due-soon-1501680162?tesla=y

El Mundo: Nicolás Maduro entra en el ‘Eje del Mal’ financiero de EEUU

“Es una especie de nuevo Eje del Mal”, explica a EL MUNDO Russ Dallen, socio y manager del fondo Caracas Capital, recordando la expresión de George W. Bush para referirse a Irak, Irán, y Corea del Norte.

La clave de ello no es solo que EEUU pueda congelar los bienes y patrimonio de Maduro, Kim, Assad, o Mugabe, sino que “toda institución financiera que usa el sistema financiero estadounidense debe informar al Tesoro si tiene cuentas a nombre de Maduro”, explica Dallen. A su vez, el Tesoro puede inmovilizar esas cuentas.

Con esa medida, Donald Trump abre la puerta, a su vez, a más medidas punitivas. “A medida que la Asamblea Constituyente empiece a funcionar, es probable que el número de altos cargos del régimen venezolano se vean sometidos al mismo tratamiento“, concluye Dallen.

http://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2017/08/01/5980da2046163f027a8b4624.html

 

El Nuevo Herald: El mayor impacto de las sanciones a Venezuela recaería sobre tenedores de bonos y aparato represor

Russ Dallen, socio gerente de la firma Caracas Capital Markets, dijo que las pretensiones del régimen bolivariano de reemplazar rápidamente a Estados Unidos como comprador de su crudo –ante la eventual aplicación de sanciones– podrían verse complicadas si Washington acompaña esa medida con otras sanciones que limitarían su acceso al sistema financiero internacional.

Estados Unidos, por ejemplo, podría colocar a PDVSA en la lista negra del Tesoro, como ya ha hecho con algunos altos funcionarios del régimen, los cual impediría que pudiera hacer operaciones en dólares.

Esa posibilidad quedó abierta hace ya bastante tiempo luego de que autoridades estadounidenses denunciaran que la estatal de petróleo estaba siendo usada para lavar dinero de la corrupción.

Por otro lado, dejar de comprar crudo venezolano podría generar beneficios políticos adicionales a Trump, dado que crearía las condiciones perfectas para cumplir con sus intenciones de vender la mitad de las Reservas Estratégicas de Petróleo del país, que el gobernante considera innecesarias ante el incremento de la producción local.

Cubrir por un año los 700,000 barriles diarios de crudo venezolano que Estados Unidos dejaría de comprar con las sanciones, requeriría cerca de 255 millones de barriles, menos de la mitad de los 688 millones que el país tiene en esas reservas.

Trump tenía planes de vender esa cantidad gradualmente durante un plazo de diez años para que de esa manera no se produjera una sobreoferta de crudo que pudiera alterar al mercado.

Pero las sanciones permitiría colocar los 255 millones en pocos meses, en una medida que en vez de alterar el mercado estaría protegiéndolo de volatilidad, explicó Dallen.

“Y al final del año, esos $16,000 millones adicionales que se van a obtener a través de las venta van a hacer que él [Trump] luzca como un héroe porque ese monto le va a permitir recortar el déficit” escenario que no se producía en Estados Unidos desde la administración de Bill Clinton, dijo Dallen, quien ha sido consultado por Washington sobre la situación en Venezuela.

“El [Trump] ya trazó una raya en la arena. El dijo que lo iba a hacer y va a salir a respaldar sus palabras después del domingo”, agregó Dallen.

http://www.elnuevoherald.com/noticias/mundo/america-latina/venezuela-es/article164272772.html

Miami Herald: After months of protests, Venezuelans brace for controversial constitutional vote

“Maduro has given [the delegates] more power than he has,” said Russ Dallen, a managing partner at Caracas Capital, and an adviser to the U.S. government.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article164174652.html

 

Miami Herald: As U.S. steps up pressure on Venezuela, oil sanctions remain one way to push out Maduro

Most of Venezuela’s other crude clients are paying for shipments in kind, or accepting them as repayment on existing debt. And that’s what could make these sanctions so effective, said Russ Dallen, a managing partner at Caracas Capital who advises U.S. lawmakers on Venezuela.

Venezuela is “pretty much dependent on us [the United States] for cash,” Dallen said. “We’ve been supporting the revolution.”

***

But Trump might already have a solution. He’s said he wants to sell half of the 700-million barrel U.S. Strategic Oil Reserve to reduce the budget deficit. And that would more than cover the Venezuelan shortfall, Dallen said.

“Trump could look like a genius at the end of the year,” he said.

***

Dallen and others point out that the petrodollars aren’t trickling down to the population anyway and that the current food and medicine shortages aren’t due to lack of funds but poor management and corruption. Sanctions, they say, won’t change that.

***

That has some hopeful that Washington’s economic arsenal won’t be needed.

“The best sanctions,” Dallen said, “are the ones that aren’t used.”

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article163737133.html

 

Financial Times: Donald Trump’s Venezuela options complicated by US refiner

“People may be surprised to learn that the US has been financing the Maduro administration,” said Russ Dallen of Caracas Capital, an investment bank.

***
Mr Dallen — who recommended a Cfius inquiry into Citgo to the US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs at a hearing on Venezuela in March — says Citgo is the only supplier to Venezuela still willing to offer credit, while other suppliers have refused to unload cargoes until payment is received.

***

Mr Dallen said Rosneft would be keen to buy Venezuelan assets on the cheap, adding that the Maduro government had already ignored the constitution by conceding shares in joint ventures beyond the 40 per cent legal maximum. “Rosneft has very good legal advisers,” he said. “They won’t get into anything that won’t stick. But they don’t mind putting a finger in America’s eye.” For the embattled Maduro administration, the prospect of such a deal holds out the hope of survival, he added. “The point is, they need the money,” Mr Dallen said. “Their only way out of the freaking mess they are in is to get oil production up.“

https://www.ft.com/content/c183f6f4-6c97-11e7-bfeb-33fe0c5b7eaa

 

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